Taking Mosul. Assault on Mosul: a US fiction or an underestimated task? Russian North - diamonds among potholes

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi yesterday announced for the second time the complete liberation of the city of Mosul from ISIS terrorists. Now without any exaggerations and assumptions. This battle lasted 266 days and required the involvement of American air and artillery forces and the concentration of the best forces of the Iraqi army, as well as detachments of the Shiite and Sunni militias of the country. Kurdish detachments were also involved in the assault.

We will never know the exact number of those who died during the assault, but we are definitely talking about thousands of dead and thousands of wounded coalition soldiers.

The official loss figures provided by the United States are about a thousand killed and about 6 thousand wounded. According to other estimates, about 7,000 were killed and up to 30,000 wounded.

Losses among the civilian population are colossal. They simply were not considered by anyone and were hidden from the "world community" in every possible way.

Back in December 2016, when the Syrian Arab Army of Bashar al-Assad, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, stormed a similar city, in which a much larger group of militants settled, there were comparisons between these two operations. Here is my December review:

In Aleppo, before the start of the battle, there were up to 15,000 militants, of which, after the surrender, about 8,000 were taken out (including the wounded). And about 10 thousand of their "brothers" tried to break through the encirclement in the fall of 2016, and almost carried out their plan.

In Mosul, according to American data, there were initially 10-15 thousand ISIS, of which about half were withdrawn and transferred to other sectors of the front before the city was completely surrounded. And then no one prevented the Iraqi forces from finishing off the encircled group.

And now this battle is over and it's time to take stock. It took the American coalition, supported by the Iraqi army, 266 days to liberate the city.

This is just the storming of the city itself. If we take the entire operation and the exit to its suburbs, then it must be counted from March 2016. Moreover, the balance of power was simply overwhelming (1 to 10), which was not even close during the fighting in Aleppo.

So, 266 days of pure assault. Taking into account the forces and means that were involved in the operation, this is a lot. It took Assad two assaults to regain control of Aleppo, which were interrupted by an attempt by militants from the province of Idlib to break into the city surrounded by the army. The first assault took several weeks, the second (solid and without interference from outside) only a little over a month, after which the rest of the group surrendered and was taken out of the city.

True, there were also irreconcilable ones, whom the army finished off in a few days of December.

Nevertheless, this is a great victory for Iraq, and now, having regrouped its forces, it will be able to launch an offensive against other strongholds of ISIS, thereby bringing its end closer and helping Syria to quickly get rid of this black infection, created by order of American politicians and with the money of Saudi and Qatari princes.

The assault on Mosul by the forces of the international coalition led by the United States is temporarily postponed. The reason is tactical: the Americans want to isolate Syrian Raqqa in order to deprive Iraqi militants of help from Syria. This was reported on Tuesday, November 1, by Izvestia with reference to the headquarters of Operation Unshakable Resolve.

According to the headquarters, mobile units of the American special forces are currently operating in the Raqqa region - detachments of the special forces of the US Army, which, together with the Kurds, destroy militants and supply convoys leaving the Syrian "capital" of the "Islamic State". The Green Berets not only launch airstrikes on militant clusters, but also attack them on their own.

At the same time, the main task is to cut the main routes connecting Rakka with the outside world, and thereby take the city under blockade.

I must say that such tactics are typical for the Pentagon. By holding the supply lines, the US military not only ensures a continuous blockade of the city with small forces, but also deprives the IS units of the opportunity to conduct reconnaissance and timely detect troops that will sooner or later storm Raqqa. According to this scenario, preparations for the offensive developed during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 and Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.

The blockade of Raqqa allows the coalition to focus on Mosul.

“According to our estimates, between three and five thousand IS militants are concentrated in Mosul, in varying degrees of readiness for resistance. Around Mosul, Iraqi security forces are conducting operations designed to restrict the freedom of movement of the enemy. While Iraqi forces are preparing to storm Mosul, the coalition continues to launch airstrikes on IS command posts and sources of funding. This makes it possible to reduce the group’s ability to transfer reinforcements and supply militants in Mosul, and also deprives them of the opportunity to retreat to Syrian territory, ”the official response of the headquarters of Operation Invincible Resolve to Izvestia’s request says.

It should be noted that the formula "first the blockade of Raqqa, then the storming of Mosul" is quite consistent with the position of US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. Earlier, he said that the coalition intends to launch an operation to free Raqqa "in a few weeks." The attack on Raqqa, according to Carter, will be the second major special operation of the coalition against the "Islamic state" after the liberation of Mosul.

However, according to the Pentagon, it is necessary to block Raqqa immediately. Because it is already clear that the assault on Mosul will be a very difficult task. To be convinced of this, it is enough to look at what is happening in Aleppo, which is half the size of Mosul in terms of area and population. In fact, it is possible that the Americans will have to demolish Mosul block by block with the help of aircraft and artillery, regardless of the losses among the civilian population.

In such a situation, the influx of fighters from Raqqa into Mosul is indeed highly undesirable. On the other hand, blocking this inflow will not fundamentally change the situation.

Will the coalition manage to organize a blockade of Raqqa, how will this affect the course of events in Syria?

The plan of the coalition led by the United States - to block Raqqa, take Mosul, and only then return to the assault on Raqqa - seems to be quite viable, - believes Deputy Director of the Taurida Information and Analytical Center RISS Sergey Ermakov. - The coalition will wisely focus on Mosul, since its capture has become a political goal. Much has been staked on this, and the assault cannot be postponed. In this sense, the blockade of Raqqa will not replace the capture of Mosul.

Another thing is to ensure the blockade of Raqqa in parallel with the preparations for the assault on Mosul, and to postpone the question of what to do with Raqqa for an indefinite period. His decision, we note, will depend on purely political factors.

- To what extent is the blockade of Raqqa possible and effective?

In my opinion, in any case, there is no question of a complete blockade of the city. To do this, it would be necessary to attract significant reserves of the coalition. However, in order to cut the main routes linking Raqqa with Mosul, the current coalition forces should be enough.

- From the words of Ashton Carter, it follows that Mosul can be taken within the next few weeks. Is it really true?

The international coalition has enough forces and means for this. But a number of questions remain: is the coalition ready to use these means, is it ready to take significant "unintentional losses" among the civilian population, as well as losses in its own ranks? So far, there are no clear answers to these questions.

- If the coalition decides to storm Mosul head-on, what will it look like?

Such an assault involves a serious fire impact with the help of aviation and missile strikes. Only after that, the coalition ground forces will squeeze out the militants block by block.

And, of course, when the Americans are given such a task as storming a city, and they need to solve it at all costs, all talk about humanitarian law fades into the background. At this time, Western TV channels will broadcast a picture about how the Russian-Syrian coalition is doing something wrong in Aleppo. It is our failures that the Western media will discuss while Mosul is under fire turning into ruins.

However, in my opinion, the United States still hopes that it will not be necessary to storm Mosul “head-on”, and that it will be possible to bargain with the militants.

- What is the meaning of this trade?

The states are already offering the militants to leave the city along the corridors provided, but not to Raqqa, but further, towards Aleppo. This gives the Islamic State an opportunity to get a breather and postpone the general battle. USA - an opportunity to announce their victory and the capture of Mosul.

In addition, it must be understood that by sending militants from Mosul to areas where the Russian-Syrian coalition is fighting, the United States gets the opportunity for additional maneuver. They can convince radical militants to change the names of their organizations, and in this way "reformat" into representatives of the legal armed Syrian opposition. This opposition, we recall, opposes the regime of Bashar al-Assad, enjoys the support of the United States, and from the point of view of the West is a party to the negotiations on Syria.

Of course, even in this case, absolutely all militants will not leave Mosul. Some of the most radical will remain to defend the city, and will be destroyed during the assault. But, of course, the assault in this case will be significantly facilitated.

- The Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Air Force have not attacked Aleppo since October 18. We are pausing as the international coalition led by the United States ramps up activity before our very eyes. Why are we doing this?

I will express a purely personal point of view. The United States and its allies have an overwhelming superiority in forces and means, compared with the Russian group in Syria. This explains the sharp activation of the Western coalition, especially against the backdrop of our attempts to take Aleppo.

But, unfortunately, we did not succeed in a quick assault on Aleppo. So now we are apparently waiting for reinforcements. The aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov", the heavy missile cruiser "Peter the Great" and six more Russian ships will arrive on the Syrian coast on November 2-4. After that, according to Western intelligence services, Moscow and Damascus will launch a large-scale operation to storm eastern Aleppo.

We need reinforcements not only to support the assault on Aleppo. In the event of a successful offensive by Assad's troops, it cannot be ruled out that our so-called Western partners will try to strike at the Russian grouping with the forces of the Syrian opposition in order to disrupt the assault.

In this case, Russia in Syria needs a significant concentration of firepower and means - this is exactly what will happen with the arrival of our naval group. This concentration will show the Americans that it is better not to play such games with us.

Many questions arise around the fate of Rakka, - notes Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, retired Colonel Semyon Bagdasarov. - To begin with, it is not at all clear which of the members of the coalition led by the United States will storm this city. This could be done by the Turks with the Kurds, but they definitely will not fight shoulder to shoulder.

On the other hand, it would also be interesting for the Russian-Syrian coalition, for political reasons, to take Raqqa. But, unfortunately, we are stuck near Aleppo, and the current "humanitarian pause" undoubtedly harms our successes.

But blocking Raqqa is quite feasible. The Americans can do this both with the help of the Kurds and with the help of the Syrian opposition.

True, the blockade will have to be established not for several weeks, as Ashton Carter promises, but for several months. Earlier, I am sure, it will not work to take Mosul.

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Alexander Kots and Dmitry Steshin, the only Russian journalists in Iraqi Kurdistan, tried to figure out how the situation in the Middle East would develop after the capture of the capital by ISIS.

The first impression of an unknown country - Iraqi Kurdistan - is formed right at the airport of the capital. The terminal of the city of Erbil is not orientally quiet and sterile. From this, we tensed even more, internally preparing for the ritual familiar to the Middle East: the gutting of all things, to the last posting. With dragging through smoky cells, where military men in wrinkled, shabby uniforms, stupefied with coffee or mate, will ask you idiotic questions: “Why do you need bulletproof vests?”. From a household satellite phone they will come to some kind of perverted excitement, dreaming of new ranks and awards - the spies have been caught! They will consider the visa of their own state as if it were Martian. Your passport will be fanned like a fan during the hours of stupid and senseless waiting, it is not clear what, but they can spill coffee or mineral water on it - how lucky.

There was nothing of this in Kurdistan - the visas were checked, we were allowed into the country. The customs officers only asked: “How many bulletproof vests do you have? Three? Welcome!".

We exhaled “thank you” in chorus in Arabic:

The customs officer frowned and remarked: “This is bad language!” But he did not detain us any longer.

Unusually democratic East

You come across this unusual democracy at every step. No one detains you for shooting on the street, there are no roadblocks in the city, a representative of the ruling Democratic Party does not marinate you over the phone with demands for requests and accreditations: “Come to our office. Let's talk." And in the office, you are received without any bureaucratic delays by the head of the party's foreign relations department, Hemin Haurami, who is authorized to voice the official position:

Head of the Department of External Relations of the Democratic Party Hemin Haurami

In two years, our forces have managed to clear 28,000 square kilometers of ISIS. Based on many reports from coalition analysts and reports from our intelligence, it can be said that in heavy fighting with the Peshmerga (armed forces of Kurdistan), with the support of allied aircraft, about 24,000 militants were killed in two years. In December 2015, together with our coalition partners, we began preparing a comprehensive plan to take Mosul. It includes military and political aspects, a security plan and a humanitarian component. But, to our regret, most of the participants are ready to discuss exclusively the military part of this plan. In accordance with all the agreements with Baghdad, the Peshmerga forces will not enter Mosul, this is the final decision, the Iraqi army takes over the entire assault on the city. Our part of the military operation was to clean up, strengthen and defend the agreed lines, now this stage has been completed, our forces will not move further. Starting October 17, we shifted the front lines in the north, northwest, east and southeast from 20-25 to 7-8 from the center of Mosul. Now it is the turn of the Iraqi army, they will storm the city from the positions we have occupied.

- This plan was agreed upon by Erbil and Baghdad. Usually you don't get along with each other...

The current command and soldiers of the Iraqi Armed Forces are not responsible for the mistakes of their predecessors committed in the 60s, 70s, 80s, these are completely different people. Defeating ISIS is in our common interest.

Half of the skyscrapers in the city are unfinished concrete skeletons, and business centers are half empty.

And there are surprisingly many states with common interests in Kurdistan today. Representatives of 17 countries of the coalition are stationed in Erbil alone. The French help with artillery, the Americans with advisers and intelligence, the Turks train Sunni special forces. Moreover, an agreement on this was officially signed back in 2014 between Baghdad and Ankara. However, those Iraqi signatories are illegal in their homeland today. And the current Iraqi authorities oppose Turkey's participation in the operation. But in the everyday bustle of Erbil, all these geopolitical subtleties seem to be something very far away.

Country of white and expensive cars

The daily traffic of "snickering Moscow" looks completely rogue in terms of its qualitative composition, when compared with the car flow in Erbil. There are no decrepit "heaps" on wheels that have lost all signs of the breed due to old age. There are no Fiats, beloved by the Middle East of the seventies, truly eternal machines. In the stream of premium cars, a Chinese moped rarely, rarely flashes and disappears without a trace among jeeps, limousines and sports “Americans”. The city is built up with skyscrapers, business centers, dozens of hectares of built-up cottage settlements are spread in the suburbs. True, if you look closely, you will see that half of the skyscrapers are unfinished concrete skeletons, business centers are half empty, and the obligatory clause in the advertisements for renting apartments is: "Water and light around the clock." But compared to Iraq devastated by many years of war, Kurdistan looks like a real oasis. Which has already received more than one and a half million Iraqi refugees.

Beggar children are an obligatory attribute of an eastern city

Iraq used to give us money, 17 percent of its entire federal budget, Ali Mansour, a local journalist and combat veteran, explains to us. - But for two years we have been on self-sufficiency. The main income of the republic is oil, but it has fallen in price on world markets. We started having some problems. But the business is working, investments are coming.

Ali is invigorating, he is a patriot of his country, although he grew up in the late USSR, in one of the southern republics.

Beggar children - an obligatory attribute of an eastern city - can ask a visitor of a street cafe not for money, but for the remains of a shish kebab, and immediately eat it greedily. An expensive shopping center lined with polished granite, surrounded by a completely garbage market, where used things are dumped right on the asphalt. And both sellers and buyers walk on them. However, here everyone is extremely friendly with us, they say “Hello!” and "Welcome!". We are mistaken for Americans, the reaction to our Russian origin is more restrained. Ali explains to us that they remember well how Saddam Hussein was going to finally solve the “Kurdish question”, and the United States through the UN introduced a no-fly zone over the territories that in the future will become the federal republic of Kurdistan. A republic that does not yet have a parliament, and the Constitution is old, still "Saddam's".

A market where used things are dumped right on the pavement

And our relations with Russia are neither bad nor good. We are not running away from Russia, Russia is running away from us.

- The reason - "swing" in our relations with Turkey?

Türkiye cannot be a geopolitical partner of Russia, these are erroneous hopes. Türkiye considers a significant part of Russia to be its lands. Crimea and all regions with a Turkic-speaking population, the so-called "Great Turan". And until now, their special services are working on this - in the post-Soviet republics they have launched Turkization programs. In Uzbekistan, Karimov, the kingdom of heaven to him, stopped all this, turned on the brakes for them. In Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, I don't know what will happen. Nazarbayev erected a monument to Ataturk in Astana, but they did not see him and do not know him. For what? Throughout history, the Turks have turned trust into expansion. Why is it Russia? The Turks need it more, they simply cannot find another source of gas.

Ali sighs.

But I don't blame anyone, business is business. The whole world trades...

An expensive shopping center lined with polished granite surrounded a completely garbage market

Pre-election storm

Mosul these days is like a little model of the Middle East. With all its contradictions, confessional conflicts, ambitions of the largest players in the region and the planet. At one point, the interests of Sunnis, Shiites, supporters of the revival of the Ottoman Empire, Great Kurdistan, US democrats clashed ... The war is going on at three levels at once - geopolitical, in which the sphere of influence and authority of individual powers is played out. Ethno-confessional - when different groups and religious movements, participating in a single battle, keep in mind the future benefits of victory. And grassroots, in which hundreds of people die, and hundreds of thousands become refugees. They are not up to chess combinations and multi-moves.

In this tangle, more reminiscent of the Gordian knot, "only Puerto Rico and Burkina Faso are missing," as they say in Erbil. And Russia, we add. Although the role of Russia in the fate of the entire Middle East is much more readily spoken here than about US assistance.

Ask any taxi driver, any passer-by: "What is ISIS?" They will say: "This is America," - Kurdish political scientist Ramzan Karim, for the sake of experiment, shouts this question to a passing taxi driver. He laughs and waves his arms.

No one here has any doubt that the Americans are flirting with ISIS. But at the same time, everyone believes in the seriousness of Russia's intentions in the fight against the Islamic State.

Compared to Iraq devastated by many years of war, Kurdistan looks like a real oasis

We are sitting at a table in an old teahouse under the ancient walls of the Erbil citadel. In comparison with the fortress of Aleppo, it seems to be glamorous front. Traces of modern battles did not touch her. For the residents of Erbil, this is a favorite place for romantic meetings, colorful selfies and walks by the fountains in the square under the citadel. The idyllic picture seems very fragile when you realize that only 80 kilometers away is the center of absolute evil - the capital of the Islamic State. Oil is burning there, they are burning it to interfere with aviation and gunners. The smell and gray haze reaches the peaceful city.

The Mosul operation is important for all of Iraq. But they started it for the sake of politics, - Ramzan Karim complains. - It was driven by the US elections. This is a Democratic campaign. Obama is taking a big risk. And it is unlikely that he will be justified.

- From the outside, it looks like a competition: Russia has Aleppo, the United States has Mosul ...

Aleppo could be the key to bringing stability and peace to Syria. Not Raqqa, but Aleppo. To win there, we need peace with Turkey. Because the main corridor through which the militants get to Syria goes through Turkey. The supply of militants in Aleppo comes from there. And, of course, coordination with the United States is important. But for some reason, the Obama administration came to the conclusion that cooperation with Russia will affect the election results not in favor of the Democrats.

Turkey seems to have a different opinion...

The union between Turkey and Russia is now very painful for the US. It seems to me that this rapprochement is Putin's answer for Ukraine. Destabilization, the murder of thousands of Russians by the forces of pro-American nationalists is a direct challenge to Russia. Putin answered him with Crimea and Turkey. This rapprochement gave him three advantages - Aleppo, economic relations and the most important geopolitical move in the most difficult game in the Middle East. Putin checkmate the US policy in the region. I think if the Republicans win the elections in America, Washington's policy in the Middle East will be radically revised. And then we will see real cooperation between the two powers and Russia's participation in the fate of Iraq and Kurdistan.

Just 80 kilometers from here is the capital of the "Islamic state"

- Why should Kurdistan participate in the current operation?

Mosul is located 80 km from Erbil. As long as it is in the hands of ISIS, this is the biggest threat to Kurdistan. Therefore, we are interested in the liberation of the city. Players participating in this release will have real results for decades to come. Mosul can be divided according to a new scheme. And the Kurdish part can go to us.

- That is part of the city?

And part of the province of Nineveh in which it is located. It can be divided according to the federal system into several districts. Yezidis - separately, Kurds and Shabaks - separately, Arabs - separately. But I'm afraid that there will be more difficult problems.

- In what sense?

A powerful ethno-confessional confrontation may begin in Mosul, in which the Americans will no longer interfere. After the overthrow of Hussein, Western states purposefully strengthen the role of the Shiites. The Shiite arc - from Tehran through Baghdad and Syria to the Mediterranean - has already been practically created. And the biggest service for the Shiites was played by Sunni radical extremism and terrorism in the face of ISIS. The Sunnis have ruined their image. The Shiites, on the other hand, have shown themselves to be the defenders of peace and tranquility, fighting world terrorism. And I think in Mosul the outcome will be in favor of the Shiites.

Let's remember Fallujah. When the Shiites entered there, they immediately massacred the Sunnis. Will it be the same in Mosul?

They are fighting ISIS with its own brutality...

For the residents of Erbil, the ancient citadel is a favorite place for romantic meetings and colorful selfies.

humanitarian catastrophe

Today, hardly anyone can guess how long the assault on the capital of the "Islamic state" can last. Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani predicts a three-month siege. Ali Mansour, a journalist who fought, believes that after the assault on the city of Mosul, it will no longer be on the map. The Americans are in a hurry, which means they will act tough. With their usual carpet bombing - a year ago the United States almost completely wiped out the Iraqi city of Ramadi, "liberating" it from the Islamists. The world community then shyly kept silent. It will not be indignant this time either. It will participate in this massacre, which will inevitably turn into a humanitarian catastrophe. The UN already today predicts a new wave of refugees of 700 thousand people.

While we are encouraged in every possible way, praised, they say a lot of warm and pleasant words to us, they emphasize the role of Kurdistan in resolving the humanitarian crisis, but this does not make it easier for us, - Hemin Haurami complains. - Soon we will not be able to accept more people, the cost of maintaining the existing ones is 1.6 billion dollars a year. And we warned the world community that we can ensure the safety of these people, but we are not able to give them everything else: food, basic necessities, medical care ... Now negotiations are underway to build 9 camps that can accommodate 225,000 people. So far, only three, 10,000 tents have been built, which is enough for only 70,000 refugees. And we need at least 10 more ... So at the moment the international community is not ready for the impending humanitarian crisis as a result of the Mosul operation.